Uncertainty, Flexibility, Valuation & Design:

نویسندگان

  • David Geltner
  • Richard de Neufville
چکیده

The 21 st century presents humankind with perhaps its greatest challenge since our species almost went extinct some 70,000 years ago in Africa. A big part of meeting that challenge lies in how the urbanization of three billion additional people (equal to the entire world population in 1960) will be accomplished between now and mid-century, on top of necessary renewal and renovation of the earth‘s existing cities. China alone will urbanize 300 million more people between now and 2030. (That is equal to the entire population of the U.S., the world‘s third most populous country, and just 20 years!) This is development on a scale and pace that is an order of magnitude greater than the past century, in a world resource and climate environment that is near the breaking point, in a context of greater technological, financial, and economic uncertainty than ever before.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

An Integrated Real Options Framework for Model-based Identification and Valuation of Options under Uncertainty

Complex systems and enterprises, such as those typical in the aerospace industry, are subject to uncertainties that may lead to suboptimal performance or even catastrophic failures if unmanaged. This work focuses on flexibility as an important means of managing uncertainties and leverages real options analysis that provides a theoretical foundation for quantifying the value of flexibility. Real...

متن کامل

A fuzzy real option approach for investment project valuation

The main purpose of this paper is to propose a fuzzy approach for investment project valuation in uncertain environments from the aspect of real options. The traditional approaches to project valuation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). However, DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls....

متن کامل

Minimizing the Cost of Innovative Nuclear Technology Through Flexibility: The Case of a Demonstration Accelerator-Driven Subcritical Reactor Park

Presented is a methodology to analyze the expected Levelised Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) in the face of technology uncertainty for AcceleratorDriven Subcritical Reactors (ADSRs). It shows that flexibility in the design and deployment strategy of an ADSR park demonstrator significantly reduces its expected LCOE. The methodology recognizes in the conceptual design a range of possible technological...

متن کامل

The Choice of Stochastic Process in Real Option Valuation

A main issue in valuation modeling is the correct choice of the stochastic process that better describes the asset price performance. Particularly, in investment projects that show a high level of managerial flexibility in conditions of uncertainty – for which it would be proposed the real option valuation models – the assumption of a specific process can have an impact not only on the project ...

متن کامل

Carbon Dioxide Capture from Coal-Fired Power Plants: A Real Options Analysis

Investments in three coal-fired power generation technologies are valued using the "real options" valuation methodology in an uncertain carbon dioxide (CO2) price environment. The technologies evaluated are pulverized coal (PC), integrated coal gasification combined cycle (baseline IGCC), and IGCC with pre-investments that make future retrofit for CO2 capture less expensive (pre-investment IGCC...

متن کامل

Providing Utility to Utilities: The Value of Information Systems Enabled Flexibility in Electricity Consumption

As the transition to renewable energy sources progresses, the integration of such sources makes electricity production increasingly fluctuate. To contribute to power grid stability, electric utilities must balance volatile supply by shifting demand. This measure of demand response depends on flexibility, which arises as the integration of information systems in the power grid grows. The option ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2011